UltraTech Cement Q4 Preview: Volume growth to support earnings; margins seen steady

UltraTech Cement is expected to post a healthy operational performance for the quarter ended March 2025, driven largely by volume growth and stable margins. The country’s largest cement maker will benefit from higher capacity utilization and a modest uptick in realizations, although cost pressures and regional pricing weakness may cap overall profitability.

According to an average of four brokerage estimates, UltraTech’s revenue is likely to grow 12% year-on-year (YoY) in Q4, while profit is expected to rise by 8% over the same period. EBITDA growth may be in high-double digits.

However, blended realizations could remain under slight pressure on a YoY basis due to high base effects.

Volumes are expected to rise owing to acquisitions and a broad-based demand recovery, while cost control measures and lower input prices should support profitability on a sequential basis.

Here’s what brokerages expect from UltraTech’s Q4:

Kotak Equities

UltraTech’s India business revenue grew 13% YoY to Rs 19,805 crore, with EBITDA rising 14.8% YoY. Adjusted PAT is seen increasing 16% YoY. Volume growth and better cost efficiencies are likely to aid margins, with EBITDA margin expected to expand 23 basis points YoY to 20.3%.

Motilal Oswal

Consolidated revenue is likely to grow 13% YoY, aided by inorganic growth. Like-to-like volume growth is estimated at 8% YoY, while consolidated EBITDA per tonne is pegged at Rs 1,104. Adjusted PAT is expected to grow 6% YoY despite higher depreciation and interest expenses.

YES Securities

Expect a volume growth of 5.3% YoY, factoring contributions from India Cement and Kesoram acquisitions. Blended realization is estimated to grow 1.1% sequentially. EBITDA per tonne is forecast at Rs 1,143, driven by better realizations and lower costs. PAT is seen rising 6.3% YoY. The brokerage remains constructive on UltraTech’s medium-term outlook

Nuvama Equities

Nuvama expects revenues to rise 11% YoY and EBITDA to grow 2% YoY. UltraTech’s grey cement volumes are projected to rise 9% YoY, with realizations improving 1.5% QoQ. However, due to cost pressures and high base impact, EBITDA/tonne may fall to Rs 1,030 from Rs 1,173 in the year-ago period.

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