Nifty: Nifty faces resistance at 25,000 mark amid geopolitical tensions

Mumbai: The 25,000 mark is turning out to be a key hurdle for the benchmark Nifty. In 2025, the index has failed to stay above this psychologically important level for more than four straight trading sessions, while it has closed above it seven times in this year, according to ETIG data.

Now, with geopolitical uncertainty heightening of late, and a lack of positive triggers, analysts see the 25,000-mark remaining a resistance against big market moves in the near future.

The highest closing for the Nifty in 2025 so far has been at 25,141 on June 11. The index closed at 24,853 on Tuesday, down 93.1 points, or 0.4%, over the previous trading session with no end in sight to the conflict between Iran and Israel.

“Market sentiment remains uncertain amid the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, limiting Nifty’s ability to sustain levels above 25,000,” said Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities. “Valuations in India are now stretched, with most positive factors such as RBI rate cuts, a good monsoon and strong macro indicators already priced in.”

Chouhan said investors are booking profits at higher levels, capping the upside for the index.

Traders are build derivative positions around 25,000, betting that the index will not surge past the 25,000 mark.Rajesh Palviya, head of technical and derivatives research at Axis Securities, said the 25,000 level has emerged as a strong resistance zone due to heavy call writing. When a trader writes (or sells) a call option at a particular strike (25,000 in this case), it’s an indication she does not expect the index to cross that level. “For the fifth consecutive week, the index has failed to sustain above this level, with fresh call writing now emerging even at 24,900,” he said. “A potential ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict remains the key near-term trigger for any meaningful upside.”

Earlier this year, Nifty crossed 25,000 for the first time in seven months on May 15, after Donald Trump claimed that India had offered to drop all tariffs on US imports.

Ruchit Jain, vice-president at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said the Nifty has traded within a broad range in the last couple of days, with 24,500-24,450 being crucial support, where dips are getting bought into.

“On the higher side, 25,000-25,200 has been acting as a resistance as it is the previous swing high resistance zone also seen during mid-October 2024,” he said. “This consolidation in a broad range seems to be a time-wise corrective phase post the recent run-up in the last couple of months.”