The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on Saturday to add 411,000 barrels a day of supply in July, but there were objections from some members including Russia. With a handful of countries lobbying for a pause in July, banks are now split on how many more hikes will come in subsequent months.
Monday’s gain – Brent crude added as much as 4.4% to top $65 – is also likely being aided by an unwinding of bearish bets taken in advance of the decision. The group had been considering returning an even bigger volume late last week, and speculative short positions in Brent were already the highest since October prior to the meeting.
“The worst of the fears was laid to rest,” said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics. “Brent shorts are now at the highest level in 2025, which makes sense given the bearish headlines coming out of OPEC. However, this is creating a recipe for a spike if spot healthy market fundamentals continue to roll on.”
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